4th 100 games - more of the same

It's been business as usual in my 4th block of 100 games:

• $25.85 profit (best so far)
• 65% ITM (best so far)
• 17.2% ROI (best so far)

Just 100 games to go now to complete the 500, and then I'll be moving up to the $3.50 level. I just want to finish it off in style now and hopefully get above the $100 profit mark for the 500 games.

Profit line for the 4th 100 games:

 Total profit over the 400 games:

My next update will include results from my 5th block of 100 games, and then a summary of my findings for the 500 games at the $1.50 level. I'll mention some of my plans for the future,things like how many games I aim to play per day and what rakeback and profit I can expect to make.

Liam

3rd 100 games - quick update

Just a very brief update as I don't feel the need to talk hands/tactics at this point. As I've said before, some of the players are a joke, and at times gift me cashes. I'm just trying very hard to keep focused and get through these 500 games at the $1.50 level with as much profit as possible, and not get ahead of myself by thinking about the next step up.

Graph 1 shows the total profit for the 100 games. My best block of 100 so far with $25.74 profit with an amazing 17.2% ROI. My ITM was 58%, 4% lower than my record, but as you will see in the next graph I had far more 1st place finishes which boosted the profit.

 Graph 2 shows my finishing positions for this block of 100 games. The obvious talking point in this graph is the 1st place finish column, 21 1st's from 100 games... Impressive! 58% ITM is very respectable too, remember 58% is always my aim, although I know I can add a few more to that.

 Graph 3 shows my overall profit for the 300 games. The graph is taking a lovely shape, and I'm feeling totally at home in these games (at this level anyway). I can only see it carrying on in a nice diagonal line, as long as I keep focused. 13.3% ROI is really healthy, I've said in the past I expect this to drop to round the 5% mark, but I'm not sure it will for the $1.50 games. I do however totally expect an ROI nearer 5% as I move up to $3.50 and eventually $7 & $15.

That's all for this post, short and sweet. If my 4th 100 goes the same as this then expect another short update too.

Liam

2nd 100 games

I've just finished my 2nd 100 games, and the profit is nearly identical to the 1st 100, but it's come a little differently. I've ran like crazy. At one point I was over $10 down, but I finished $16.09 up in the end. One of the reasons for the swing was running so so bad around half way through the 100 games. I ran absolutely shocking, I went through a patch where I must have been losing 80% of 50/50 flips, losing with higher pocket pairs vs lower pockets... I even lost KQ off vs KQ off all in pre. I have a graph here from Holdem Manager to show where my profit should have been compared to where it actually was:

The green line shows my actual profit with the red line showing where the profit should have been according to the all in EV. Half way through the 2nd 100 games the gap in clear, I was running horrendously! I didn't get disheartened at all, if anything I just kept a level head because I knew I wasn't doing much wrong. In the end, I got a bit of run good, and the luck leveled itself out. The two lines are now a lot closer together.

I kept the same playing style as the first 100 games. VPIP around 16%, PFR around 12%. My ITM dropped to 57% but I had more 1st place finishes which compensated for the 62% ITM in the first hundred games. I'm hoping the third set of 100 games will go more smoothly!

I don't think I have much more to say as yet, I'll have a think of things I might be able to add in future posts. Here's a few more graphs to finish off:

My total profit graph after 200 games:

The graph for my 2nd block of 100 games:

Finishing positions:

First 100 games

Initial findings

Firstly, I'm posting this the same day as my introductory post I know, but I started playing before getting my first blog post together. I will be more organised in future.

I have done really well in my first 100 games, but I'm far from getting ahead of myself because the standard of play has been terrible. I am taking it for granted as I go up the levels I will find it a lot harder. There has been some ridiculous plays/calls that I just can't see happening at $30+ level. One notable call made was when 3 players limped into my BB of 100. I had a 900 stack and shoved my AA. I got a call from J6 suited! For one, I can't see people choosing to play J6 at $30+, never mind calling an all in of that magnitude. 

For all the criticism I've give of the play, there is always at least 2-3 regs at every table. I've found the regs play very tight, with VPIP's of under 10 usually. I've been playing a VPIP of around 18, with my PFR around 13. I've limped a lot more than I thought I would, I think this is because the players are that bad I find myself set mining and trying to hit big flops with suited connectors as I know I will get paid more than not. I think as I go up the levels the limp will diminish. I've folded hands like KQ, AJ, ATs etc from UTG and UTG +1 when there's 8-10 players at the table. I think this is the smart long term move, playing in position in these games is massive. My hand range widens considerably as I move into mid position and approaching the button, but as the games are turbo I find myself shoving 10BB in these positions vs players with tight stats.

I see the regs with the 8 VPIP and 8 PFR, and as much as I respect that I think my style will be looser. I will research how well these players are doing, and consider tightening up if I like what I see. I'm still learning,  but enjoying the challenge. Here's some screenshots from Sharkscope:

This total profit line has started off on a good trend. Of course it's only 100 games in, but the early signs are good.

This graph shows the finishing positions in my first 100 games. Amazingly I have come 2nd 21 times, with just 9 wins. I think the low number of 3rd place finishes (5) is the sign of a good player. I think this because I am either dominating games finishing top 2 (30%) or getting to the bubble around 3rd in chips and just getting safely over the line in 4th or 5th (27%). Coming 3rd isn't here or there, and I'm hoping this number stays low as I play more games. I have bubbled 13 times, but I do feel I've ran really bad on a number of occasions. It's good that 75% of the time I am making it to the bubble, and putting myself in with a shot of getting paid.

Statistics

There's not much point of screen printing the statistics off Sharkscope's 'Statistics' section as they have a lot of stats that are pointless to this project. All I need to look at is ROI and ITM mainly, but I'll mention my best and worst cashing streak as well.

My ITM stands at a healthy 62%. I'll be very happy if I keep it that high, I'm pretty sure 62% will guarantee a profit at any level.

My ROI is a brilliant 12.1%. I expect this to drop in future, 5% is always the dream benchmark for players grinding games where 50% of the field is paid.

I had a losing streak of 5 games, which was very frustrating but variance can kick in at any level. My best cashing streak was 10. I feel I can put together good streaks consistently playing as I have been, especially at the $1.50 level. Streaks are important as a grinder, building that momentum just keeps you going.

Okay, that's all for now, I'm going to get stuck into my 2nd 100 games. Hoping I keep up the good form!

Liam (The Reflex2 on Stars)

Starting fresh

I had a brief stab at blogging in 2011, and to be fair, whilst I was blogging my results were

very consistent week on week. I stopped making posts out of pure laziness I guess, and not long after my results made a turn for the worse. Now, I'm not for one second blaming my slump in results on me not blogging my progress, however looking back I always felt really driven and motivated whilst posting my weekly progress, and it definitely helped me stay on track. Back then I was playing off a 5 figure bankroll and grinding $100 PLO Super Turbo heads up on Full Tilt. I was the world number 1 earner for over a year and absolutely flying. I was really loving life. Then 'Black Friday' happened, I lost my bankroll, and quite frankly lost my way in poker. I know when Full Tilt closed it ruined 100's of online grinders careers, so I don't want to talk too much on this topic, but at the time Full Tilt was the only site in the world offering Super Turbo PLO HU. With that being my speciality, I had to try and totally re-invent myself as a player, which I suppose I failed to do.

I've gone through a lot of problems off the tables in the last 6 months, something I don't want to talk about on here but something I am very open about with friends and family. I am now over my personal problems that have held me back, and have a new found hunger for poker again. I have turned to Fifty50 games because in my opinion, once you can master them, they are the best SNG game to grind anywhere in the world. Here are my reasons for saying this:

• PokerStars has the highest number of players of any site, meaning games come thick and fast 24 hours a day
• With 5 players being paid out of 10, variance is a lot lower than MTT's
• They are perfect for multi-tabling because most plays will be made looking at HUD's and will become second nature once mastered.
• The rewards scheme on PokerStars is simple and pays okay for decent grinders
• I get motivated by competing to be on Sharkscope's leaderboards, and with Fifty50 being one of the most popular games anywhere, I will have plenty of people to compete against and keep me driven.

Fifty50's - How they work:

Fifty50's have 10 players, with the ultimate aim being to finish in the top 5. When this is achieved the game stops and everyone is paid, but with one main twist.... the amount you get paid depends on your finishing stack. 

For example: A $30 game ($28.63 + $1.37) Will be paid as follows: 1st-5th each receive their $28.63 entry fee + $0.95 for every 100 chips in their stacks. So, if you finish on 4,000 chips you will receive $28.63 + $38 = $66.63.

My approach:

As I've never properly played these games, I'm not sure how aggressive to play. I have an idea in my head that I want my VPIP to be around 14-18 per game, with my PFR being a similar figure to my VPIP. You can make profit in these games with an ITM of under 50% by playing bubbles aggressively - therefore finishing on higher chip stacks. You can have an ITM of 65% and have the same profit as a player on 45% as you could play with a lower VPIP and keep sneaking into the money with low chip stacks. I think the way I play will depend on how many regs are on my table in each game, and I will have to adapt to their HUD readings. Overall, I predict I'll have an ITM around 58%, with most of my cashes being 2nd-5th. This prediction is based on my current playing style, I'm not an erratic and aggressive bubble player and might be guilty of taking a decent stack into the bubble and playing it safe into the top 5. If this tactic doesn't bring me a consistent profit I will have no problem adapting, after all I am experimenting in the lower stakes for a few months to try and work out my approach to these games for 2014.

Updates:

I am going to be playing $1.50 games to start. I am hoping to play 500 games and be in profit. This may sound like a simple task, but I feel Fifty50's will prove to be very different from other standard SNG's. I will update after every 100 games, and if it all goes to plan I'll move up to $3.50 games and see how my new found style plays against better opposition going forward. 

I am looking forward to getting stuck into this now, it could be the start of something very special! 

Liam (The Reflex2)